Working Papers
Abstract. In this paper we develop a bioeconomic model of timber harvesting that includes dynamic interactions between mountain pine beetle (MPB) and a lodgepole pine forest with a disaggregated size structure. The model is used to investigate the consequences of alternative public management strategies on forest dynamics in the presence of MPB outbreaks. Management practices similar to those commonly practiced are shown to increase the severity of MPB cycles. Centrally coordinated forest management can eliminate MPB cycles and lessen the impacts of MPB outbreaks with only small reductions in the long-run stock of adult trees.
Abstract. We report the findings of a nation-wide experiment to price access to U.S. public lands. We administered a national telephone survey to over 3,700 households and used contingent valuation to estimate households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the new pass. The WTP estimates are calibrated for hypothetical bias using actual purchasing decisions. In a sample of the general U.S. population respondents tend to exaggerate their WTP for the pass. A sample of former pass purchasers, however, exhibits little bias, confirming other research showing that market experience can mitigate hypothetical bias.
Estimating Hypothetical Bias in Willingness-to-Pay for a Generic Public Good: A Contingent Valuation Experiment in Economically Emergent Africa (with Arthur Caplan and Anthony Macharia)
Abstract. This paper reports results from a CV-based public good experiment conducted in the African nation of Botswana. In a sample of university students, we find evidence that stated willingness to contribute to a public good in a hypothetical setting is higher than actual contribution levels in a real setting. However, this is only true in the second round of the experiment, when participants in the real setting have learned to significantly lower their contribution levels. As globalization expands markets, and economies such as Botswana’s continue to modernize, there is an increasing need to understand how hypothetical bias will influence the valuation of public goods.
Equity Basis Selection in Allocation Environments: An Empirical Analysis (with Van Kolpin)
Abstract. The successful formation and long-term stability of a cooperative venture is often linked to the perceived fairness of the associated cost or resource allocation. In particular, the effectiveness of such collaborations can be hampered by the lack of a consensus view on what basis should be used for gauging an allocation’s “fairness.” Standards of equity in traditional cost-sharing applications could be assessed on many dimensions: per capita, per unit of demand, or per unit of revenue, to mention a few. This multiplicity of logically compelling “equity bases” is a feature common to many agricultural cost-sharing applications. Our analysis of irrigation cost sharing shows that features of the allocation environment are capable of explaining a substantial amount of the variation in the equity bases employed in practice. The observed equity bases are also consistent with the benefit inequity principle, which hypothesizes that pre-tax benefit inequity has a monotonic impact on equity basis selection.
Abstract. We investigate interview effects in a random digit dial telephone survey of recycling valuation and behavior. Lack of market experience with environmental goods may cause respondents to be more prone to interview effects during valuation surveys. Following previous research in both psychology and survey methodology, we test the direct effects of interviewer gender and race, as well as the interaction effects between interviewer and respondent characteristics. Using data from 132 interviewers and 3870 interviewees, we apply a hierarchal regression model that accounts for the clustering of interviews and controls for a variety of other confounding variables. We confirm the existence of both direct and conditional interview effects. Respondents stated higher willingness to pay when interviewed by a white interviewer than by a non-white interviewer and when interviewed by a female interviewer than by a male interviewer. There were also significant interaction effects between interviewer and respondent characteristics. The directions of the interview effects are consistent with previous survey research and social psychology theories. We also find “timing effects” related to the time and date of interviews that are not traditionally included in studies of interview effects.
Abstract. Research consistently shows that natural resource abundance tends to be associated with lower economic growth. However, the studies typically focus on differences across nations or states. We fill a gap in the literature by testing the so-called resource curse at a more disaggregated county level. Our results show clear evidence that resource-dependent counties exhibit more anemic economic growth, even after controlling for state-specific effects, socio-demographic differences, initial income, and spatial correlation. A case study analysis of Maine and Wyoming, and the counties within, highlight the growth effects of specializing in natural resource extraction.
Abstract. Previous research has failed to draw any clear conclusions about the efficiency of the billion-dollar gambling industry for National Football League (NFL) games. We update the previous research and expose clear market inefficiencies. Betting strategies using performance statistics and identifying a select number of high probability wins can produce statistically significant positive returns.