UW Professor: Wyoming To Benefit From Mining, U.S. Economic Strength |  
|
Feb. 13, 2004 An improved U.S. and world economy along with the rising oil and gas prices are good news for Wyoming for the next several years, says a University of Wyoming assistant professor of finance.
According to the Conference Board's latest economic forecast, the United States and major world economies are on pace to record their best years since 1984. The Conference Board is comprised of economists who basically predict both the U.S. and global economic conditions, says Walter Werner, visiting assistant professor in the UW Department of Economics and Finance. He has more than 30 years experience working on the Chicago commodity exchanges. According to the Conference Board's latest predictions, the U.S. growth will reach 5.9 percent this year, while global growth will hit about 5 percent.
"This is a very different type of economic year because there is a presidential election and you cannot talk about the U.S. economy without talking about politics," Werner says. "I would think we are now out of the recession, which probably ended last March."
Werner says the most troubling part of U.S. economic growth is the slow rebound in jobs.
"There are two things affecting this, one being technology. We now have machines doing our jobs," Werner says. "Second is the reluctance of the major employers to add to their payrolls."
He said, for example, that 112,000 new jobs nationwide were added according to the latest job index, but most were in the service and retail sectors and very few in the manufacturing sector.
"This leaves us thinking that our manufacturing jobs are going outside our borders some going to China or Mexico where the labor is much cheaper," he says.
Werner says Wyoming officials are doing a good job in attempting to attract businesses that offer good paying jobs. However, he says, "It is a challenge to get people to relocate to Wyoming.
"Over a period of time, Wyoming will continue to grow slowly, but there is no question that mineral and gas production will bring people to Wyoming," he says. "Some of the technology projects that are being promoted in Wyoming also should be helpful."
The state's mineral industry has benefited the Wyoming economy, Werner says, as evident by the projected more than $1 billion surplus. He says for the next three to five years, the state will continue to have such a surplus because of oil, gas and coal production.
"You can certainly argue with me, but I don't feel that we will have lasting peace and stability in the Middle East, which means that the price of oil and gas will continue to rise," he says. "I think that the days of cheap oil and gas are behind us and it will not surprise me if oil reaches $35 $40 a barrel.
"For Wyoming, this is outstanding. I think we will continue to have substantial amounts of surplus money."
But being one of the few states that has a budget surplus does not necessarily mean more jobs will come to Wyoming, he adds.
Posted on Friday, February 13, 2004
|
