Dickman: Obstacles in the Iraqi Elections Stand Prominent

Jan. 27, 2005 -- If the Iraqi election is a failure it could lead to a civil war, or it may lead to just about anything that's unexpected, says a former U.S. ambassador to Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

"Clearly, the Iraqi elections are an important event," says Francois M. Dickman, former adjunct professor in the University of Wyoming's Department of Political Science. "It's too early to tell but success or failure will have an important impact on Middle East politics, including the unresolved Palestinian question."

A specialist in U.S. foreign policy who speaks Arabic, French and Spanish, Dickman served in World War II and the Korean conflict. A native of Laramie, he had a successful career as a foreign-service officer, then returned to teach at UW from 1985-2003. Dickman will appear on "The Iraqi Elections: Road Map to Democracy?" panel on Tuesday, Feb. 1, from 4-6 p.m. in the UW College of Agriculture auditorium.

"If we want to establish democracy in Iraq," says Dickman, "we need to show that we will respond to the desire of most Iraqis by having a credible timetable for the eventual withdrawal of occupation troops. We also have to demonstrate that the administration will now take a more active part in dealing with the Palestinian question."

Dickman believes there are a number of significant obstacles in the way of successful elections next week, beginning with poor internal security in a country where kidnapings, the murder of Iraqi officials, and acts of insurgency have had a chilling effect.

"Many Iraqis are afraid to go out and vote because they may be killed," he says. "Clearly, the number of U.S.-trained Iraqi security personnel is far too small to assure security of the elections, even in safe areas. Due to the security situation, no foreign observers have volunteered for this election."

Although the elections are open to all Iraqi citizens, 18 years or older, including those abroad, there are limited polling places. The voting period, Sunday through Tuesday, was extended from one day to three to allow more opportunity for registration and participation. According to Dickman, Iraqis in the United States must travel to Detroit, Nashville, Washington, D.C., Chicago or Los Angeles to vote.

"It is important to note whether the Sunnis, who are a minority in Iraq, will boycott the elections," says Dickman. "Many reside in Falluja and there are very bitter feelings after the U.S. troops stormed and obliterated the town. On the other hand, the majority Shia are expected to vote in large numbers."

In conjunction with the general election, on Jan. 30, elections in the 18 Iraqi provinces will be held. Dickman says the Kurds in northern Iraq say they will boycott the municipal elections if Iraqi Sunni, who were moved to Kurdistan by Saddam Hussein to dilute the Kurdish population there, are given the right to vote.

"This provincial vote would legitimize the presence of Sunni Arabs in Kurdistan," he says. "I think the general election will be impacted by this and the provincial elections could be very messy and inconclusive with the results being challenged by different ethnic groups."

The lack of political party roots among Iraqi voters poses another obstacle. Dickman says surveys coming out of Iraq show that three quarters of Iraqis do not have a political affiliation. These public opinion polls appear to indicate that Iraqis will vote for a party based on who can reestablish law and order, according to Dickman.

He says, "Voters in Iraq vote for a party list rather than individuals. Twenty-five percent of the party list must be women candidates. This was a condition of the United Nations."

Dickman worries that the American public does not realize or appreciate the cost of the war. Considering the enormous trade and budget deficits, due in part to the conflict in Iraq, the situation is grim. He is afraid not only of the declining dollar, but that inflation will rise.

Iraqis and their immediate neighbors are convinced, says Dickman, that the United States will maintain a permanent residence in Iraq.

"Although it may not be feasible, I would like to see us withdraw our troops from the populated areas and post them along Iraq's border to prevent infiltration," he offers. "It would be an indication of moving in the direction of withdrawal and I believe it would give hope."

He adds, "If Iraq holds together after the elections and the new national assembly negotiates a draft constitution, there will be new tensions unless important compromises are made by the three major political groups."

The Kurds desire full autonomy, but will be opposed by the Shia, he says, adding that unless significant concessions are made to the minority Sunni, who have lost their historic dominance, they will support the insurgency.

"Obviously, what makes Iraq so difficult to predict and manage," says Dickman, "are the severe ethnic and religious differences."

Posted on Thursday, January 27, 2005