An Efficient Two-Stage Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Dynamic Data Integration

Abstract. In this paper, we use a two-stage Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for subsurface characterization that employs coarse-scale models. The purpose of the proposed method is to increase the acceptance rate of MCMC by using inexpensive coarse-scale runs based on single-phase upscaling. Numerical results demonstrate that our approach leads to a severalfold increase in the acceptance rate and provides a practical approach to uncertainty quantification during subsurface characterization.

Keywords. MCMC; upscaling; acceptance rate.