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Forecasting Production in an Oil Reservoir Simulation and Its Challenges

Abstract. A Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification of oil reservoir parameters in forecasting the production is straight forward in principle. However, the complexity of flow simulators and the nature of the inverse problem at hand present an ongoing practical challenge to addressing uncertainty in all subsurface parameters. In this paper, we focus on two important subsurface parameters, permeability and porosity and discuss quantifying uncertainty in those parameters.