IECM 12.0 beta User Manual > Introduction >

Uncertainty Features

The ability to characterize uncertainties explicitly is a feature unique to this model. As many as one hundred input parameters can be assigned probability distributions. When input parameters are uncertain, an uncertainty distribution of results is available. Such result distributions give the likelihood of a particular value, in contrast to conventional single-value estimates.

The IECM normally displays only single deterministic values. However, a graph or table of the uncertainty distribution for any parameter or result may be requested, for instance, to analyze advanced technology costs.

The Uncertainty Analysis Tool provides a list of all parameters with uncertainty, as well as a list of all uncertain parameters and results, making it easy to view relevant results and detect any unanticipated effects.

The uncertainty system can also be used for batch processing by giving each parameter to be varied a "distribution" containing the desired values, where each "sample" is one set of input values. Result distributions are then viewed as tables, allowing the user to see which result corresponds with each input set.