IECM 12.0 beta User Manual > Introduction to Uncertainty Analysis > Encoding Uncertainties as Probability Distributions > Judgments about Uncertainties >

Availability

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The probability experts assign to a particular possible outcome may be linked to the ease (availability) with which they can recall past instances of the outcome. For example, if tests have yielded high sorbent utilization, it may be easier to imagine obtaining a high sorbent utilization in the future than obtaining lower utilization. Thus, one tends to expect experts to be biased toward outcomes they have recently observed or can easily imagine, as opposed to other possible outcomes that have not been observed in tests.