UW Researchers Head Study That Finds Climate Change Effects on Ski Resorts in West Vary Widely

Ski resorts across the western United States are challenged by climate change, with fewer days of sufficient natural snow during the season and more frequent weather conditions unsuitable for artificial snowmaking early in the ski season. While this applies to all ski resorts, the magnitude of snow security reduction varies widely, according to new research.

“In general, the study examines how a warming future will affect ski areas in the western United States, mainly due to decreasing natural snow, shorter ski seasons and fewer opportunities for making artificial snow,” says Pramod Adhikari, a research scientist in the University of Wyoming Department of Atmospheric Science. “But I believe the novel aspect of this study is that the effects will not be the same everywhere.”

 

Adhikari was lead and corresponding author of a paper titled “Charting resilience at Rocky Mountain ski areas as winters shrink” that was published Sept. 3 in the journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. The journal considers research that explores all aspects of the physical, chemical and biological components of the climate and atmospheric sciences. 

 

Adhikari worked with UW colleagues Bart Geerts, a UW professor of atmospheric science, and Stefan Rahimi, an assistant professor of atmospheric science. Other collaborators were Kristen Rasmussen, an associate professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University; Bridger Huhn, a technical fellow at Innosphere and the National Science Foundation (NSF) ASCEND Engine in Colorado and Wyoming; and Mikkel Quam, a senior technical fellow at Innosphere and NSF ASCEND Engine.

 

The research findings indicate that all ski areas are likely to face growing challenges as the Earth warms, but resorts at higher elevations and those that have historically received more snow are generally more resilient, Adhikari says.

 

“Specifically, many high-elevation resorts in the Colorado Rockies seem relatively less vulnerable than those in certain other regions of the West, even though Colorado, as a whole, is expected to see considerable warming, more than the global mean and the coastal states,” he says. “The mid-winters will still be cold enough at these resorts, at least in the next few decades. On this basis, some of these higher-elevation resorts may benefit, because they can offer more snow security as the winters continue to warm.”

 

The study began by looking at 98 ski areas in the western United States, dividing them into five regions to understand general geographic differences in climate vulnerability, Adhikari says. The research group then conducted a more detailed analysis of 36 ski areas in the Rocky Mountain region, using its own RM1.3 dataset. These 36 areas consist of 18 resorts in Colorado, 11 in Utah, four in Wyoming and three in Montana. The resorts in Wyoming that were part of the study were Grand Targhee, Jackson Hole, Snowy Range and White Pine.

 

“Grand Targhee and, especially, Jackson Hole are important to Wyoming’s winter recreation industry, and these resorts are slipping from a low to a moderate risk score in the next few decades,” Adhikari explains. “This risk score quantifies snow security, combining chances for too little natural snow, too little snowmaking potential and also chances for rain on snow, which is rare in Wyoming. The Snowy Range and, especially, White Pine are smaller ski areas, mostly serving the local population. They, too, will be in the moderate risk category.”

 

The RM1.3 dataset -- a 70-year physics-based, high-resolution climate and atmospheric dataset for the Rocky Mountain region -- is a major foundation of the study. It includes 35 years of historical reconstruction and 35 years of future projection. Adhikari led the development of this dataset in the Department of Atmospheric Science by using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Wyoming Supercomputing Center high-performance computing resources.

 

“The dataset’s 1.33 kilometer-scale resolution allows us to represent complex mountain terrain and associated atmospheric processes in much greater detail than coarser climate datasets,” he says. “And, in some cases, even more accurately than observation-based gridded datasets, which can be limited by the sparse observational network in mountainous terrain, such as in the interior Mountain West.”

 

More broadly, Adhikari says the RM1.3 dataset also can be a valuable community asset for a wide range of applications across the Rocky Mountain region. Its kilometer-scale resolution and multidecadal coverage, including future climate conditions, make it useful for studying seasonal snowpack evolution; wind-energy potential; high-impact weather, such as wildfires and hailstorms; and changing climate attribution and adaptation. This ski-area study is one example of how such a high-resolution climate dataset can translate a large-scale warming environment into locally relevant information.

 

“The results have implications well beyond individual ski resorts. They could help mountain communities, tourism and recreation planners, water resource managers, local and state agencies, and businesses whose economies depend on winter recreation,” Adhikari says. “Snow reliability affects not only whether a resort can operate, but also tourism, employment, water and energy demand for snowmaking, and longer-term decisions about infrastructure and investment.”

 

More generally, he says the study shows that high-resolution Earth system modeling data can help communities make decisions at both local and regional levels. For ski areas, the findings can help identify where climate risks are rising fastest and where adaptation may be more feasible.

 

“The paper examines a range of possible long-term actions, such as expanding in locations with more secure snow supply or reevaluating the viability of areas where snow risk increases considerably,” Adhikari says.

The research was supported by NSF through an EPSCoR grant and by the NSF ASCEND Engine in Colorado and Wyoming.