What is Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning is a set of strategic planning tools used to guide how action and decisions should be taken today in the context of uncertainty about the future.

Scenarios are narratives—short stories, a few paragraphs at most—based on scientific evidence about possible futures. These short stories allow us to look together at the issues that matter most to us, like future water quality and availability. When used in a collaborative context, storytelling is a way of building collective knowledge about the future, as well as knowledge about the past and present. 

We often use more than one scenario to increase our agility in thinking about uncertainties that lie ahead. We explore how trends might play out, such as how warming temperatures might influence snowpack in our watershed and the related ecological, social, and economic impacts.  

We all face uncertainties that are beyond our control, but looking at the possibilities together is not beyond our control. Research shows when we look together even 30 to 50 years into the future, we grow our communities’ resilience to change.

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Scenario planning is a fun and high impact community engagement tool that delivers immediate rewards to participants including: 

  • Gathering to identify concerns, gain the information needed, and discuss ways of solving complex challenges.  
  • Learning from subject matter experts about the issues that concern your communities, including the best science available and current research projects underway in your area. 
  • Making social space for reflecting on the issues that concern people most, especially how water futures impact local ecology, economy, and sustainability. 
  • Can be run in multiple time frames, from two hours to two days, with the option for follow-up processes to support local interest.