Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2025	56.49%	54.81%	58.16%
Jun-2025	81.43%	79.63%	83.11%
Jul-2025	80.28%	78.21%	82.19%
Aug-2025	80.97%	79.38%	82.46%
Sep-2025	84.26%	82.24%	86.09%
Oct-2025	64.07%	59.73%	68.20%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2025	$350.32	$327.09	$373.56
Jun-2025	$519.33	$484.31	$554.36
Jul-2025	$576.41	$534.16	$618.66
Aug-2025	$557.22	$527.31	$587.13
Sep-2025	$473.29	$437.71	$508.86
Oct-2025	$315.73	$285.51	$345.94

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2025	$197.90	$179.27	$217.27
Jun-2025	$422.91	$385.64	$460.75
Jul-2025	$462.72	$417.77	$508.47
Aug-2025	$451.18	$418.60	$484.15
Sep-2025	$398.81	$360.00	$438.08
Oct-2025	$202.30	$170.52	$235.94

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2025	$927,220	$828,695	$1,037,458
Jun-2025	$262,906	$221,241	$312,416
Jul-2025	$742,074	$648,030	$849,741
Aug-2025	$1,526,429	$1,286,057	$1,821,188
Sep-2025	$1,674,943	$1,383,252	$2,044,312
Oct-2025	$1,643,710	$1,360,554	$2,001,176
Nov-2025	$1,568,739	$1,257,399	$1,984,989
Dec-2025	$816,761	$660,855	$1,012,328

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2025	$1,545,366	$1,381,159	$1,729,096
Jun-2025	$438,176	$368,736	$520,694
Jul-2025	$1,236,790	$1,080,049	$1,416,235
Aug-2025	$2,544,049	$2,143,428	$3,035,313
Sep-2025	$2,791,572	$2,305,420	$3,407,187
Oct-2025	$2,739,517	$2,267,590	$3,335,293
Nov-2025	$2,614,565	$2,095,665	$3,308,316
Dec-2025	$1,361,268	$1,101,425	$1,687,213

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2025	$2,472,586	$2,209,854	$2,766,554
Jun-2025	$701,082	$589,977	$833,110
Jul-2025	$1,978,864	$1,728,079	$2,265,975
Aug-2025	$4,070,478	$3,429,485	$4,856,502
Sep-2025	$4,466,515	$3,688,672	$5,451,499
Oct-2025	$4,383,227	$3,628,144	$5,336,469
Nov-2025	$4,183,305	$3,353,064	$5,293,305
Dec-2025	$2,178,029	$1,762,280	$2,699,541

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2025	$37,103,708	$32,401,476	$42,487,036
Jun-2025	$76,321,465	$64,302,842	$91,059,403
Jul-2025	$83,747,161	$69,162,605	$102,215,604
Aug-2025	$82,185,515	$68,027,702	$100,058,793
Sep-2025	$78,436,963	$62,869,953	$99,249,466
Oct-2025	$40,838,041	$33,042,755	$50,616,396

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$322,434,252	$69,048,422	$17,491,464	$408,974,138
Median Estimate	$384,123,887	$82,259,103	$20,838,025	$487,221,015
High Estimate	$461,395,927	$98,806,707	$25,029,902	$585,232,536

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$104,286,605	$23,274,291	$4,827,835	$132,388,731
Median Estimate	$124,239,208	$27,727,241	$5,751,523	$157,717,972
High Estimate	$149,231,710	$33,304,975	$6,908,527	$189,445,211

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$233,263,577	$40,596,719	$10,545,958	$284,406,255
Median Estimate	$277,892,660	$48,363,882	$12,563,668	$338,820,210
High Estimate	$333,794,761	$58,092,973	$15,091,036	$406,978,771

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	4,064	653	181	4,897
Median Estimate	4,841	777	215	5,834
High Estimate	5,815	934	259	7,008