Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2025	63.82%	62.84%	64.79%
Apr-2025	33.66%	31.64%	35.75%
May-2025	60.82%	58.67%	62.93%
Jun-2025	81.70%	79.51%	83.71%
Jul-2025	80.46%	77.93%	82.76%
Aug-2025	80.81%	78.28%	83.10%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2025	$481.80	$449.99	$513.62
Apr-2025	$240.39	$198.49	$282.28
May-2025	$348.96	$315.51	$382.40
Jun-2025	$532.95	$499.56	$566.34
Jul-2025	$580.46	$530.78	$630.13
Aug-2025	$523.52	$478.00	$569.05

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2025	$307.50	$282.78	$332.78
Apr-2025	$80.92	$62.79	$100.91
May-2025	$212.24	$185.11	$240.65
Jun-2025	$435.44	$397.22	$474.07
Jul-2025	$467.02	$413.64	$521.49
Aug-2025	$423.04	$374.18	$472.90

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2025	$953,952	$865,524	$1,051,415
Apr-2025	$1,084,856	$979,731	$1,201,262
May-2025	$1,005,682	$891,774	$1,135,872
Jun-2025	$301,447	$251,010	$360,089
Jul-2025	$782,525	$695,597	$880,176
Aug-2025	$1,561,848	$1,323,486	$1,856,067
Sep-2025	$1,776,855	$1,482,330	$2,148,425
Oct-2025	$1,742,193	$1,399,448	$2,203,857

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2025	$1,589,920	$1,442,540	$1,752,358
Apr-2025	$1,808,094	$1,632,885	$2,002,103
May-2025	$1,676,137	$1,486,290	$1,893,119
Jun-2025	$502,411	$418,350	$600,149
Jul-2025	$1,304,208	$1,159,328	$1,466,961
Aug-2025	$2,603,081	$2,205,810	$3,093,445
Sep-2025	$2,961,425	$2,470,550	$3,580,708
Oct-2025	$2,903,655	$2,332,414	$3,673,094

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2025	$2,543,872	$2,308,064	$2,803,772
Apr-2025	$2,892,950	$2,612,616	$3,203,364
May-2025	$2,681,819	$2,378,064	$3,028,991
Jun-2025	$803,858	$669,361	$960,239
Jul-2025	$2,086,733	$1,854,925	$2,347,137
Aug-2025	$4,164,929	$3,529,296	$4,949,512
Sep-2025	$4,738,280	$3,952,880	$5,729,132
Oct-2025	$4,645,847	$3,731,862	$5,876,951

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2025	$50,284,098	$44,588,695	$56,793,577
Apr-2025	$15,072,335	$12,550,513	$18,004,474
May-2025	$39,126,253	$34,779,851	$44,008,822
Jun-2025	$78,092,417	$66,174,295	$92,803,342
Jul-2025	$88,842,748	$74,116,498	$107,421,233
Aug-2025	$87,109,635	$69,972,411	$110,192,833

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$239,242,270	$51,233,082	$12,978,443	$303,453,795
Median Estimate	$290,240,105	$62,154,130	$15,744,980	$368,139,214
High Estimate	$355,993,193	$76,234,978	$19,311,974	$451,540,145

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$77,379,385	$17,269,238	$3,582,192	$98,230,815
Median Estimate	$93,873,883	$20,950,417	$4,345,787	$119,170,087
High Estimate	$115,140,749	$25,696,678	$5,330,316	$146,167,743

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$173,078,720	$30,122,267	$7,824,967	$211,025,954
Median Estimate	$209,972,869	$36,543,250	$9,492,968	$256,009,087
High Estimate	$257,541,638	$44,822,024	$11,643,581	$314,007,243

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	3,015	484	134	3,634
Median Estimate	3,658	587	163	4,408
High Estimate	4,487	720	200	5,407