Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Apr-2025	30.54%	28.81%	32.33%
May-2025	57.22%	55.64%	58.80%
Jun-2025	82.59%	80.64%	84.38%
Jul-2025	80.36%	78.67%	81.95%
Aug-2025	80.56%	78.79%	82.21%
Sep-2025	83.94%	81.67%	85.98%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Apr-2025	$231.21	$211.37	$251.05
May-2025	$339.29	$304.18	$374.39
Jun-2025	$489.34	$455.77	$522.92
Jul-2025	$556.50	$528.05	$584.95
Aug-2025	$566.76	$529.19	$604.33
Sep-2025	$495.75	$457.52	$533.97

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Apr-2025	$70.62	$60.90	$81.17
May-2025	$194.16	$169.24	$220.13
Jun-2025	$404.15	$367.54	$441.25
Jul-2025	$447.23	$415.44	$479.38
Aug-2025	$456.56	$416.96	$496.79
Sep-2025	$416.13	$373.65	$459.09

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Apr-2025	$1,088,275	$981,127	$1,207,124
May-2025	$945,883	$856,478	$1,044,620
Jun-2025	$289,627	$237,301	$351,079
Jul-2025	$770,126	$684,586	$866,025
Aug-2025	$1,601,722	$1,360,705	$1,896,879
Sep-2025	$1,670,331	$1,402,325	$2,005,089
Oct-2025	$1,667,822	$1,404,418	$1,995,066
Nov-2025	$1,682,850	$1,359,350	$2,113,781

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Apr-2025	$1,813,792	$1,635,212	$2,011,874
May-2025	$1,576,471	$1,427,464	$1,741,033
Jun-2025	$482,711	$395,501	$585,131
Jul-2025	$1,283,543	$1,140,977	$1,443,375
Aug-2025	$2,669,537	$2,267,842	$3,161,465
Sep-2025	$2,783,885	$2,337,208	$3,341,814
Oct-2025	$2,779,703	$2,340,696	$3,325,110
Nov-2025	$2,804,751	$2,265,584	$3,522,969

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Apr-2025	$2,902,067	$2,616,339	$3,218,998
May-2025	$2,522,354	$2,283,942	$2,785,652
Jun-2025	$772,337	$632,802	$936,210
Jul-2025	$2,053,668	$1,825,563	$2,309,400
Aug-2025	$4,271,260	$3,628,547	$5,058,344
Sep-2025	$4,454,216	$3,739,533	$5,346,903
Oct-2025	$4,447,525	$3,745,114	$5,320,176
Nov-2025	$4,487,601	$3,624,934	$5,636,750

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Apr-2025	$14,481,325	$11,865,044	$17,553,945
May-2025	$38,506,277	$34,229,314	$43,301,245
Jun-2025	$80,086,123	$68,035,255	$94,843,942
Jul-2025	$83,516,541	$70,116,236	$100,254,427
Aug-2025	$83,391,100	$70,220,891	$99,753,300
Sep-2025	$84,142,521	$67,967,511	$105,689,068

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$322,434,252	$69,048,422	$17,491,464	$408,974,138
Median Estimate	$384,123,887	$82,259,103	$20,838,025	$487,221,015
High Estimate	$461,395,927	$98,806,707	$25,029,902	$585,232,536

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$104,286,605	$23,274,291	$4,827,835	$132,388,731
Median Estimate	$124,239,208	$27,727,241	$5,751,523	$157,717,972
High Estimate	$149,231,710	$33,304,975	$6,908,527	$189,445,211

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$233,263,577	$40,596,719	$10,545,958	$284,406,255
Median Estimate	$277,892,660	$48,363,882	$12,563,668	$338,820,210
High Estimate	$333,794,761	$58,092,973	$15,091,036	$406,978,771

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	4,064	653	181	4,897
Median Estimate	4,841	777	215	5,834
High Estimate	5,815	934	259	7,008