Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025	82.81%	81.78%	83.80%
Jul-2025	81.48%	79.51%	83.30%
Aug-2025	81.36%	79.85%	82.78%
Sep-2025	81.77%	79.67%	83.70%
Oct-2025	56.39%	52.91%	59.80%
Nov-2025	21.48%	17.30%	26.36%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025	$529.89	$510.15	$549.63
Jul-2025	$592.87	$554.59	$631.14
Aug-2025	$532.15	$497.33	$566.97
Sep-2025	$476.05	$448.24	$503.86
Oct-2025	$318.66	$284.08	$353.24
Nov-2025	$247.82	$218.34	$277.31

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025	$438.82	$417.18	$460.60
Jul-2025	$483.06	$440.95	$525.73
Aug-2025	$432.95	$397.11	$469.35
Sep-2025	$389.28	$357.10	$421.75
Oct-2025	$179.68	$150.31	$211.24
Nov-2025	$53.24	$37.76	$73.10

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025	$263,938	$222,351	$313,305
Jul-2025	$726,838	$652,788	$809,287
Aug-2025	$1,541,132	$1,283,287	$1,863,966
Sep-2025	$1,737,829	$1,405,470	$2,173,732
Oct-2025	$1,684,625	$1,359,948	$2,112,782
Nov-2025	$1,436,360	$1,173,469	$1,778,427
Dec-2025	$752,575	$614,302	$923,269
Jan-2026	$234,906	$160,026	$331,693

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025	$439,897	$370,584	$522,175
Jul-2025	$1,211,396	$1,087,979	$1,348,812
Aug-2025	$2,568,554	$2,138,812	$3,106,610
Sep-2025	$2,896,382	$2,342,451	$3,622,886
Oct-2025	$2,807,708	$2,266,580	$3,521,304
Nov-2025	$2,393,933	$1,955,782	$2,964,045
Dec-2025	$1,254,292	$1,023,836	$1,538,782
Jan-2026	$391,509	$266,709	$552,822

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025	$703,836	$592,935	$835,479
Jul-2025	$1,938,233	$1,740,767	$2,158,100
Aug-2025	$4,109,686	$3,422,099	$4,970,576
Sep-2025	$4,634,211	$3,747,921	$5,796,617
Oct-2025	$4,492,332	$3,626,528	$5,634,086
Nov-2025	$3,830,293	$3,129,251	$4,742,472
Dec-2025	$2,006,868	$1,638,138	$2,462,052
Jan-2026	$626,415	$426,735	$884,515

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025	$77,056,615	$64,164,363	$93,198,300
Jul-2025	$86,891,449	$70,273,523	$108,686,575
Aug-2025	$84,231,231	$67,997,409	$105,639,118
Sep-2025	$71,817,996	$58,673,460	$88,921,350
Oct-2025	$37,628,775	$30,715,082	$46,163,468
Nov-2025	$11,745,278	$8,001,278	$16,584,655

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$329,807,332	$70,627,347	$17,891,439	$418,326,119
Median Estimate	$398,632,853	$85,366,159	$21,625,110	$505,624,122
High Estimate	$485,686,697	$104,008,510	$26,347,633	$616,042,841

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$106,671,319	$23,806,502	$4,938,233	$135,416,054
Median Estimate	$128,931,919	$28,774,543	$5,968,767	$163,675,228
High Estimate	$157,088,201	$35,058,357	$7,272,235	$199,418,793

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$238,597,598	$41,525,041	$10,787,112	$290,909,751
Median Estimate	$288,389,104	$50,190,662	$13,038,218	$351,617,984
High Estimate	$351,367,807	$61,151,351	$15,885,523	$428,404,681

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	4,157	667	185	5,009
Median Estimate	5,024	807	224	6,055
High Estimate	6,121	983	272	7,377