Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

May 2025 Forecast

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate
 
Date Occupancy Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025 82.81% 81.78% 83.80%
Jul-2025 81.48% 79.51% 83.30%
Aug-2025 81.36% 79.85% 82.78%
Sep-2025 81.77% 79.67% 83.70%
Oct-2025 56.39% 52.91% 59.80%
Nov-2025 21.48% 17.30% 26.36%

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Average Daily Rate

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate
 
Date Average Daily Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025 $529.89 $510.15 $549.63
Jul-2025 $592.87 $554.59 $631.14
Aug-2025 $532.15 $497.33 $566.97
Sep-2025 $476.05 $448.24 $503.86
Oct-2025 $318.66 $284.08 $353.24
Nov-2025 $247.82 $218.34 $277.31

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR)

Revenue per Available Room

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR
 
Date RevPAR Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025 $438.82 $417.18 $460.60
Jul-2025 $483.06 $440.95 $525.73
Aug-2025 $432.95 $397.11 $469.35
Sep-2025 $389.28 $357.10 $421.75
Oct-2025 $179.68 $150.31 $211.24
Nov-2025 $53.24 $37.76 $73.10

Tax Revenues

Tax Revenues

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025 $263,938 $222,351 $313,305
Jul-2025 $726,838 $652,788 $809,287
Aug-2025 $1,541,132 $1,283,287 $1,863,966
Sep-2025 $1,737,829 $1,405,470 $2,173,732
Oct-2025 $1,684,625 $1,359,948 $2,112,782
Nov-2025 $1,436,360 $1,173,469 $1,778,427
Dec-2025 $752,575 $614,302 $923,269
Jan-2026 $234,906 $160,026 $331,693

Lodging tax revenue

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025 $439,897 $370,584 $522,175
Jul-2025 $1,211,396 $1,087,979 $1,348,812
Aug-2025 $2,568,554 $2,138,812 $3,106,610
Sep-2025 $2,896,382 $2,342,451 $3,622,886
Oct-2025 $2,807,708 $2,266,580 $3,521,304
Nov-2025 $2,393,933 $1,955,782 $2,964,045
Dec-2025 $1,254,292 $1,023,836 $1,538,782
Jan-2026 $391,509 $266,709 $552,822

Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025 $703,836 $592,935 $835,479
Jul-2025 $1,938,233 $1,740,767 $2,158,100
Aug-2025 $4,109,686 $3,422,099 $4,970,576
Sep-2025 $4,634,211 $3,747,921 $5,796,617
Oct-2025 $4,492,332 $3,626,528 $5,634,086
Nov-2025 $3,830,293 $3,129,251 $4,742,472
Dec-2025 $2,006,868 $1,638,138 $2,462,052
Jan-2026 $626,415 $426,735 $884,515

Lodging Sector Sales

Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales
 
Date Lodging Sales Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2025 $77,056,615 $64,164,363 $93,198,300
Jul-2025 $86,891,449 $70,273,523 $108,686,575
Aug-2025 $84,231,231 $67,997,409 $105,639,118
Sep-2025 $71,817,996 $58,673,460 $88,921,350
Oct-2025 $37,628,775 $30,715,082 $46,163,468
Nov-2025 $11,745,278 $8,001,278 $16,584,655

Economic Indicators

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $329,807,332 $70,627,347 $17,891,439 $418,326,119
Median Estimate $398,632,853 $85,366,159 $21,625,110 $505,624,122
High Estimate $485,686,697 $104,008,510 $26,347,633 $616,042,841
Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $106,671,319 $23,806,502 $4,938,233 $135,416,054
Median Estimate $128,931,919 $28,774,543 $5,968,767 $163,675,228
High Estimate $157,088,201 $35,058,357 $7,272,235 $199,418,793
Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $238,597,598 $41,525,041 $10,787,112 $290,909,751
Median Estimate $288,389,104 $50,190,662 $13,038,218 $351,617,984
High Estimate $351,367,807 $61,151,351 $15,885,523 $428,404,681
Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate 4,157 667 185 5,009
Median Estimate 5,024 807 224 6,055
High Estimate 6,121 983 272 7,377