Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

January 2025 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2025	74.06%	73.06%	75.03%
Mar-2025	66.68%	64.75%	68.56%
Apr-2025	32.61%	30.20%	35.12%
May-2025	58.39%	55.39%	61.33%
Jun-2025	80.82%	76.93%	84.19%
Jul-2025	80.27%	76.26%	83.75%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2025	$540.41	$496.02	$584.81
Mar-2025	$480.94	$440.77	$521.10
Apr-2025	$257.38	$216.04	$298.71
May-2025	$338.36	$315.15	$361.56
Jun-2025	$501.07	$464.80	$537.34
Jul-2025	$554.68	$500.27	$609.10

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2025	$400.21	$362.40	$438.77
Mar-2025	$320.71	$285.41	$357.27
Apr-2025	$83.94	$65.25	$104.91
May-2025	$197.56	$174.56	$221.73
Jun-2025	$404.96	$357.55	$452.39
Jul-2025	$445.26	$381.53	$510.11

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2025	$827,071	$748,433	$913,972
Mar-2025	$963,582	$868,825	$1,068,675
Apr-2025	$1,190,135	$1,032,126	$1,376,701
May-2025	$1,031,149	$900,567	$1,183,408
Jun-2025	$315,937	$260,989	$379,507
Jul-2025	$783,545	$682,929	$899,645
Aug-2025	$1,535,440	$1,263,287	$1,884,295
Sep-2025	$1,791,526	$1,459,026	$2,223,422

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2025	$1,378,452	$1,247,389	$1,523,286
Mar-2025	$1,605,971	$1,448,041	$1,781,124
Apr-2025	$1,983,558	$1,720,211	$2,294,501
May-2025	$1,718,582	$1,500,946	$1,972,347
Jun-2025	$526,562	$434,982	$632,512
Jul-2025	$1,305,908	$1,138,216	$1,499,408
Aug-2025	$2,559,067	$2,105,479	$3,140,491
Sep-2025	$2,985,877	$2,431,710	$3,705,703

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2025	$2,205,523	$1,995,823	$2,437,258
Mar-2025	$2,569,553	$2,316,866	$2,849,799
Apr-2025	$3,173,693	$2,752,337	$3,671,202
May-2025	$2,749,732	$2,401,513	$3,155,755
Jun-2025	$842,500	$695,971	$1,012,019
Jul-2025	$2,089,453	$1,821,145	$2,399,054
Aug-2025	$4,094,507	$3,368,766	$5,024,786
Sep-2025	$4,777,404	$3,890,735	$5,929,125

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2025	$59,506,753	$51,606,319	$68,835,030
Mar-2025	$51,557,468	$45,028,365	$59,170,415
Apr-2025	$15,796,874	$13,049,452	$18,975,353
May-2025	$39,177,237	$34,146,474	$44,982,253
Jun-2025	$76,772,008	$63,164,366	$94,214,729
Jul-2025	$89,576,319	$72,951,290	$111,171,093

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$239,242,270	$51,233,082	$12,978,443	$303,453,795
Median Estimate	$290,240,105	$62,154,130	$15,744,980	$368,139,214
High Estimate	$355,993,193	$76,234,978	$19,311,974	$451,540,145

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$77,379,385	$17,269,238	$3,582,192	$98,230,815
Median Estimate	$93,873,883	$20,950,417	$4,345,787	$119,170,087
High Estimate	$115,140,749	$25,696,678	$5,330,316	$146,167,743

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$173,078,720	$30,122,267	$7,824,967	$211,025,954
Median Estimate	$209,972,869	$36,543,250	$9,492,968	$256,009,087
High Estimate	$257,541,638	$44,822,024	$11,643,581	$314,007,243

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	3,015	484	134	3,634
Median Estimate	3,658	587	163	4,408
High Estimate	4,487	720	200	5,407