Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

December 2024 forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jan-2025	64.63%	63.86%	65.39%
Feb-2025	71.37%	69.49%	73.18%
Mar-2025	62.85%	60.73%	64.93%
Apr-2025	32.15%	29.91%	34.46%
May-2025	57.29%	53.18%	61.30%
Jun-2025	81.06%	75.91%	85.33%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jan-2025	$505.85	$473.51	$538.18
Feb-2025	$527.50	$466.97	$588.04
Mar-2025	$459.11	$424.35	$493.87
Apr-2025	$278.30	$250.62	$305.98
May-2025	$349.98	$321.29	$378.67
Jun-2025	$502.38	$472.03	$532.73

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jan-2025	$326.91	$302.37	$351.91
Feb-2025	$376.48	$324.51	$430.30
Mar-2025	$288.57	$257.69	$320.68
Apr-2025	$89.46	$74.97	$105.45
May-2025	$200.51	$170.87	$232.14
Jun-2025	$407.24	$358.31	$454.56

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jan-2025	$244,160	$210,054	$283,803
Feb-2025	$823,847	$747,530	$907,956
Mar-2025	$1,044,979	$906,064	$1,209,156
Apr-2025	$1,158,897	$1,001,786	$1,345,857
May-2025	$961,601	$816,042	$1,137,950
Jun-2025	$325,919	$254,995	$410,195
Jul-2025	$779,624	$645,990	$942,517
Aug-2025	$1,533,783	$1,159,968	$2,074,189

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jan-2025	$406,933	$350,090	$473,006
Feb-2025	$1,373,079	$1,245,883	$1,513,261
Mar-2025	$1,741,632	$1,510,106	$2,015,260
Apr-2025	$1,931,494	$1,669,644	$2,243,095
May-2025	$1,602,668	$1,360,069	$1,896,583
Jun-2025	$543,198	$424,992	$683,659
Jul-2025	$1,299,373	$1,076,650	$1,570,862
Aug-2025	$2,556,305	$1,933,280	$3,456,982

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jan-2025	$651,093	$560,144	$756,809
Feb-2025	$2,196,926	$1,993,412	$2,421,217
Mar-2025	$2,786,611	$2,416,170	$3,224,417
Apr-2025	$3,090,391	$2,671,431	$3,588,951
May-2025	$2,564,268	$2,176,111	$3,034,532
Jun-2025	$869,117	$679,988	$1,093,854
Jul-2025	$2,078,997	$1,722,640	$2,513,379
Aug-2025	$4,090,089	$3,093,248	$5,531,171

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jan-2025	$52,248,952	$45,303,191	$60,457,811
Feb-2025	$57,944,827	$50,089,323	$67,292,837
Mar-2025	$48,080,028	$40,802,084	$56,897,480
Apr-2025	$16,295,946	$12,749,775	$20,509,759
May-2025	$38,981,192	$32,299,508	$47,125,854
Jun-2025	$76,689,160	$57,998,391	$103,709,452

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$210,476,157	$45,419,762	$11,430,343	$267,326,263
Median Estimate	$249,607,746	$53,864,175	$13,555,465	$317,027,386
High Estimate	$297,100,262	$64,112,840	$16,134,656	$377,347,758

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$68,075,410	$15,303,567	$3,153,180	$86,532,156
Median Estimate	$80,731,945	$18,148,796	$3,739,417	$102,620,158
High Estimate	$96,092,699	$21,601,943	$4,450,913	$122,145,556

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$152,268,008	$26,693,531	$6,895,554	$185,857,093
Median Estimate	$180,577,576	$31,656,374	$8,177,571	$220,411,521
High Estimate	$214,935,818	$37,679,590	$9,733,513	$262,348,922