UW Wyoming Outdoor Recreation, Tourism and Hospitality Initiative (WORTH)

Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

June 2024 Forecast

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate
 
Date Occupancy Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024 84.73% 83.99% 85.45%
Aug-2024 82.75% 80.08% 85.13%
Sep-2024 79.57% 74.93% 83.54%
Oct-2024 47.84% 44.18% 51.53%
Nov-2024 25.92% 20.33% 32.42%
Dec-2024 42.00% 36.78% 47.39%

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate
 
Date Average Daily Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024 $539.57 $518.36 $560.79
Aug-2024 $498.11 $476.83 $519.40
Sep-2024 $396.99 $369.83 $424.15
Oct-2024 $283.56 $268.54 $298.57
Nov-2024 $264.07 $234.77 $293.38
Dec-2024 $561.31 $520.40 $602.22

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR)

Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR
 
Date RevPAR Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024 $457.19 $435.36 $479.17
Aug-2024 $412.19 $381.84 $442.17
Sep-2024 $315.89 $277.10 $354.35
Oct-2024 $135.66 $118.63 $153.86
Nov-2024 $68.44 $47.72 $95.12
Dec-2024 $235.72 $191.41 $285.42

Tax Revenues

Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024 $472,152 $472,152 $472,152
Aug-2024 $1,383,612 $1,205,142 $1,588,512
Sep-2024 $1,638,588 $1,369,768 $1,970,106
Oct-2024 $1,556,277 $1,296,192 $1,880,616
Nov-2024 $1,335,067 $1,093,474 $1,648,034
Dec-2024 $595,465 $525,131 $675,882
Jan-2025 $248,935 $187,879 $323,015
Feb-2025 $656,616 $561,509 $770,377

Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024 $786,920 $786,920 $786,920
Aug-2024 $2,306,020 $2,008,570 $2,647,521
Sep-2024 $2,730,979 $2,282,947 $3,283,510
Oct-2024 $2,593,795 $2,160,320 $3,134,359
Nov-2024 $2,225,111 $1,822,457 $2,746,724
Dec-2024 $992,442 $875,219 $1,126,470
Jan-2025 $414,892 $313,132 $538,358
Feb-2025 $1,094,359 $935,849 $1,283,961

Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024 $1,259,073 $1,259,073 $1,259,073
Aug-2024 $3,689,633 $3,213,712 $4,236,033
Sep-2024 $4,369,567 $3,652,716 $5,253,615
Oct-2024 $4,150,071 $3,456,512 $5,014,975
Nov-2024 $3,560,178 $2,915,932 $4,394,758
Dec-2024 $1,587,907 $1,400,350 $1,802,351
Jan-2025 $663,827 $501,010 $861,373
Feb-2025 $1,750,975 $1,497,358 $2,054,338

Lodging Sector Sales

Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales
 
Date Lodging Sales Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024 $81,929,383 $68,488,417 $98,505,289
Aug-2024 $77,813,838 $64,809,591 $94,030,780
Sep-2024 $66,753,330 $54,673,724 $82,401,711
Oct-2024 $29,773,248 $26,256,559 $33,794,087
Nov-2024 $12,446,755 $9,393,946 $16,150,747
Dec-2024 $32,830,780 $28,075,469 $38,518,836

Economic Indicators

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $251,697,707 $54,315,179 $13,668,965 $319,681,850
Median Estimate $301,547,334 $65,072,497 $16,376,163 $382,995,994
High Estimate $363,401,449 $78,420,336 $19,735,293 $461,557,079
Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $81,407,912 $18,300,756 $3,770,727 $103,479,395
Median Estimate $97,531,039 $21,925,287 $4,517,536 $123,973,862
High Estimate $117,536,841 $26,422,658 $5,444,187 $149,403,686
Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $182,089,548 $31,921,433 $8,246,042 $222,257,023
Median Estimate $218,153,032 $38,243,588 $9,879,207 $266,275,827
High Estimate $262,901,107 $46,088,212 $11,905,660 $320,894,980
Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate 3,198 514 142 3,854
Median Estimate 3,831 615 171 4,617
High Estimate 4,617 741 206 5,564
 
 
 
 
 
 






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