Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

June 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024	84.73%	83.99%	85.45%
Aug-2024	82.75%	80.08%	85.13%
Sep-2024	79.57%	74.93%	83.54%
Oct-2024	47.84%	44.18%	51.53%
Nov-2024	25.92%	20.33%	32.42%
Dec-2024	42.00%	36.78%	47.39%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024	$539.57	$518.36	$560.79
Aug-2024	$498.11	$476.83	$519.40
Sep-2024	$396.99	$369.83	$424.15
Oct-2024	$283.56	$268.54	$298.57
Nov-2024	$264.07	$234.77	$293.38
Dec-2024	$561.31	$520.40	$602.22

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024	$457.19	$435.36	$479.17
Aug-2024	$412.19	$381.84	$442.17
Sep-2024	$315.89	$277.10	$354.35
Oct-2024	$135.66	$118.63	$153.86
Nov-2024	$68.44	$47.72	$95.12
Dec-2024	$235.72	$191.41	$285.42

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024	$472,152	$472,152	$472,152
Aug-2024	$1,383,612	$1,205,142	$1,588,512
Sep-2024	$1,638,588	$1,369,768	$1,970,106
Oct-2024	$1,556,277	$1,296,192	$1,880,616
Nov-2024	$1,335,067	$1,093,474	$1,648,034
Dec-2024	$595,465	$525,131	$675,882
Jan-2025	$248,935	$187,879	$323,015
Feb-2025	$656,616	$561,509	$770,377

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024	$786,920	$786,920	$786,920
Aug-2024	$2,306,020	$2,008,570	$2,647,521
Sep-2024	$2,730,979	$2,282,947	$3,283,510
Oct-2024	$2,593,795	$2,160,320	$3,134,359
Nov-2024	$2,225,111	$1,822,457	$2,746,724
Dec-2024	$992,442	$875,219	$1,126,470
Jan-2025	$414,892	$313,132	$538,358
Feb-2025	$1,094,359	$935,849	$1,283,961

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024	$1,259,073	$1,259,073	$1,259,073
Aug-2024	$3,689,633	$3,213,712	$4,236,033
Sep-2024	$4,369,567	$3,652,716	$5,253,615
Oct-2024	$4,150,071	$3,456,512	$5,014,975
Nov-2024	$3,560,178	$2,915,932	$4,394,758
Dec-2024	$1,587,907	$1,400,350	$1,802,351
Jan-2025	$663,827	$501,010	$861,373
Feb-2025	$1,750,975	$1,497,358	$2,054,338

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jul-2024	$81,929,383	$68,488,417	$98,505,289
Aug-2024	$77,813,838	$64,809,591	$94,030,780
Sep-2024	$66,753,330	$54,673,724	$82,401,711
Oct-2024	$29,773,248	$26,256,559	$33,794,087
Nov-2024	$12,446,755	$9,393,946	$16,150,747
Dec-2024	$32,830,780	$28,075,469	$38,518,836

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$251,697,707	$54,315,179	$13,668,965	$319,681,850
Median Estimate	$301,547,334	$65,072,497	$16,376,163	$382,995,994
High Estimate	$363,401,449	$78,420,336	$19,735,293	$461,557,079

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$81,407,912	$18,300,756	$3,770,727	$103,479,395
Median Estimate	$97,531,039	$21,925,287	$4,517,536	$123,973,862
High Estimate	$117,536,841	$26,422,658	$5,444,187	$149,403,686

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$182,089,548	$31,921,433	$8,246,042	$222,257,023
Median Estimate	$218,153,032	$38,243,588	$9,879,207	$266,275,827
High Estimate	$262,901,107	$46,088,212	$11,905,660	$320,894,980