Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

September 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Nov-2024	28.24%	26.74%	29.80%
Dec-2024	47.58%	45.56%	49.60%
Jan-2025	61.14%	58.06%	64.14%
Feb-2025	68.14%	64.14%	71.88%
Mar-2025	61.09%	56.14%	65.83%
Apr-2025	35.32%	30.91%	39.99%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Nov-2024	$192.42	$174.50	$210.35
Dec-2024	$520.39	$488.22	$552.56
Jan-2025	$500.53	$476.58	$524.48
Feb-2025	$567.32	$539.44	$595.20
Mar-2025	$497.23	$466.05	$528.41
Apr-2025	$290.47	$253.19	$327.74

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Nov-2024	$54.35	$46.65	$62.68
Dec-2024	$247.59	$222.45	$274.08
Jan-2025	$306.04	$276.70	$336.41
Feb-2025	$386.55	$346.02	$427.82
Mar-2025	$303.77	$261.63	$347.84
Apr-2025	$102.58	$78.25	$131.07

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Nov-2024	$1,311,704	$1,162,475	$1,480,090
Dec-2024	$632,738	$574,642	$696,707
Jan-2025	$259,586	$216,051	$310,062
Feb-2025	$793,100	$703,810	$894,487
Mar-2025	$926,459	$809,916	$1,062,505
Apr-2025	$1,060,916	$906,519	$1,248,339
May-2025	$912,819	$771,664	$1,085,202
Jun-2025	$326,878	$251,029	$417,673

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Nov-2024	$2,186,173	$1,937,458	$2,466,817
Dec-2024	$1,054,563	$957,737	$1,161,179
Jan-2025	$432,643	$360,086	$516,770
Feb-2025	$1,321,833	$1,173,017	$1,490,812
Mar-2025	$1,544,098	$1,349,860	$1,770,842
Apr-2025	$1,768,193	$1,510,865	$2,080,565
May-2025	$1,521,365	$1,286,106	$1,808,670
Jun-2025	$544,797	$418,382	$696,121

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Nov-2024	$3,497,877	$3,099,933	$3,946,906
Dec-2024	$1,687,301	$1,532,379	$1,857,886
Jan-2025	$692,228	$576,137	$826,833
Feb-2025	$2,114,932	$1,876,827	$2,385,299
Mar-2025	$2,470,557	$2,159,776	$2,833,348
Apr-2025	$2,829,108	$2,417,384	$3,328,904
May-2025	$2,434,183	$2,057,770	$2,893,872
Jun-2025	$871,675	$669,411	$1,113,793

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Nov-2024	$12,979,281	$10,802,565	$15,503,113
Dec-2024	$39,654,976	$35,190,510	$44,724,348
Jan-2025	$46,322,936	$40,495,791	$53,125,270
Feb-2025	$53,045,777	$45,325,946	$62,416,958
Mar-2025	$45,640,936	$38,583,195	$54,260,099
Apr-2025	$16,343,906	$12,551,459	$20,883,627

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$182,949,466	$39,479,622	$9,935,439	$232,364,527
Median Estimate	$213,987,813	$46,177,561	$11,621,051	$271,786,425
High Estimate	$250,913,414	$54,145,932	$13,626,372	$318,685,719

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$59,172,307	$13,302,118	$2,740,795	$75,215,221
Median Estimate	$69,211,203	$15,558,897	$3,205,788	$87,975,888
High Estimate	$81,154,244	$18,243,730	$3,758,977	$103,156,952

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$132,353,950	$23,202,466	$5,993,727	$161,550,143
Median Estimate	$154,808,499	$27,138,895	$7,010,602	$188,957,996
High Estimate	$181,522,156	$31,821,965	$8,220,347	$221,564,468