Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

September 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Oct-2024	54.16%	52.75%	55.55%
Nov-2024	25.85%	23.82%	27.98%
Dec-2024	45.07%	42.52%	47.66%
Jan-2025	62.45%	59.86%	64.97%
Feb-2025	71.49%	68.05%	74.69%
Mar-2025	66.22%	61.12%	70.97%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Oct-2024	$323.48	$308.74	$338.21
Nov-2024	$204.64	$183.15	$226.14
Dec-2024	$557.46	$524.23	$590.70
Jan-2025	$535.46	$508.25	$562.68
Feb-2025	$560.63	$525.62	$595.63
Mar-2025	$469.57	$430.40	$508.75

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Oct-2024	$175.19	$162.87	$187.89
Nov-2024	$52.89	$43.62	$63.28
Dec-2024	$251.28	$222.89	$281.52
Jan-2025	$334.40	$304.24	$365.58
Feb-2025	$400.78	$357.69	$444.89
Mar-2025	$310.94	$263.04	$361.06

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Oct-2024	$1,572,679	$1,399,065	$1,767,837
Nov-2024	$1,345,296	$1,208,001	$1,498,194
Dec-2024	$670,003	$600,917	$747,038
Jan-2025	$247,463	$209,357	$290,977
Feb-2025	$728,990	$632,801	$840,608
Mar-2025	$904,405	$782,239	$1,049,051
Apr-2025	$1,107,617	$941,482	$1,310,921
May-2025	$969,093	$812,209	$1,163,229

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Oct-2024	$2,621,132	$2,331,775	$2,946,395
Nov-2024	$2,242,160	$2,013,335	$2,496,991
Dec-2024	$1,116,671	$1,001,529	$1,245,063
Jan-2025	$412,439	$348,928	$484,962
Feb-2025	$1,214,984	$1,054,669	$1,401,014
Mar-2025	$1,507,342	$1,303,732	$1,748,418
Apr-2025	$1,846,028	$1,569,137	$2,184,868
May-2025	$1,615,154	$1,353,682	$1,938,716

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Oct-2024	$4,193,811	$3,730,840	$4,714,233
Nov-2024	$3,587,455	$3,221,337	$3,995,185
Dec-2024	$1,786,674	$1,602,446	$1,992,100
Jan-2025	$659,902	$558,285	$775,939
Feb-2025	$1,943,974	$1,687,470	$2,241,622
Mar-2025	$2,411,748	$2,085,971	$2,797,469
Apr-2025	$2,953,644	$2,510,619	$3,495,789
May-2025	$2,584,247	$2,165,891	$3,101,945

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Oct-2024	$33,500,129	$30,045,862	$37,351,882
Nov-2024	$12,373,170	$10,467,852	$14,548,862
Dec-2024	$36,449,516	$31,640,066	$42,030,417
Jan-2025	$45,220,271	$39,111,956	$52,452,553
Feb-2025	$55,380,833	$47,074,101	$65,546,044
Mar-2025	$48,454,627	$40,610,452	$58,161,467

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$215,599,413	$46,525,337	$11,708,572	$273,833,322
Median Estimate	$251,645,932	$54,304,006	$13,666,153	$319,616,091
High Estimate	$294,694,019	$63,593,584	$16,003,980	$374,291,582

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$69,732,451	$15,676,075	$3,229,932	$88,638,459
Median Estimate	$81,391,166	$18,296,991	$3,769,951	$103,458,109
High Estimate	$95,314,435	$21,426,987	$4,414,865	$121,156,288

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$155,974,404	$27,343,285	$7,063,401	$190,381,089
Median Estimate	$182,052,092	$31,914,866	$8,244,346	$222,211,304
High Estimate	$213,195,033	$37,374,420	$9,654,680	$260,224,133