January 2024 forecast

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2024	70.93%	69.55%	72.28%
Mar-2024	65.38%	62.46%	68.18%
Apr-2024	31.58%	27.91%	35.50%
May-2024	50.29%	47.77%	52.82%
Jun-2024	69.80%	63.94%	75.08%
Jul-2024	71.21%	66.48%	75.53%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2024	$508.53	$469.57	$547.50
Mar-2024	$493.62	$464.38	$522.87
Apr-2024	$188.30	$144.76	$231.84
May-2024	$338.75	$307.12	$370.38
Jun-2024	$460.83	$429.45	$492.22
Jul-2024	$534.66	$499.46	$569.86

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2024	$360.72	$326.57	$395.74
Mar-2024	$322.73	$290.06	$356.52
Apr-2024	$59.47	$40.40	$82.31
May-2024	$170.37	$146.70	$195.63
Jun-2024	$321.67	$274.60	$369.57
Jul-2024	$380.75	$332.03	$430.39

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2024	$768,325	$703,376	$839,271
Mar-2024	$950,302	$867,846	$1,040,592
Apr-2024	$1,154,978	$1,019,890	$1,310,490
May-2024	$1,063,472	$944,320	$1,199,379
Jun-2024	$284,338	$231,912	$345,484
Jul-2024	$736,083	$639,757	$846,891
Aug-2024	$1,386,863	$1,136,305	$1,707,374
Sep-2024	$1,586,590	$1,327,066	$1,910,574

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2024	$1,280,542	$1,172,294	$1,398,785
Mar-2024	$1,583,837	$1,446,410	$1,734,321
Apr-2024	$1,924,964	$1,699,817	$2,184,150
May-2024	$1,772,453	$1,573,867	$1,998,965
Jun-2024	$473,896	$386,521	$575,807
Jul-2024	$1,226,805	$1,066,261	$1,411,485
Aug-2024	$2,311,438	$1,893,842	$2,845,623
Sep-2024	$2,644,317	$2,211,776	$3,184,290

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2024	$2,048,867	$1,875,670	$2,238,056
Mar-2024	$2,534,139	$2,314,256	$2,774,913
Apr-2024	$3,079,942	$2,719,707	$3,494,641
May-2024	$2,835,924	$2,518,187	$3,198,343
Jun-2024	$758,234	$618,433	$921,291
Jul-2024	$1,962,887	$1,706,018	$2,258,377
Aug-2024	$3,698,300	$3,030,147	$4,552,997
Sep-2024	$4,230,907	$3,538,842	$5,094,864

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Feb-2024	$57,748,914	$50,994,507	$65,524,510
Mar-2024	$53,173,576	$47,216,015	$59,968,939
Apr-2024	$14,216,890	$11,595,620	$17,274,206
May-2024	$36,804,137	$31,987,830	$42,344,561
Jun-2024	$69,343,128	$56,815,248	$85,368,688
Jul-2024	$79,329,511	$66,353,284	$95,528,699

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$264,962,504	$56,840,393	$14,246,842	$336,049,738
Median Estimate	$310,616,156	$66,634,124	$16,701,605	$393,951,885
High Estimate	$366,009,604	$78,517,260	$19,680,071	$464,206,935

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$85,698,215	$19,177,653	$3,900,742	$108,776,610
Median Estimate	$100,464,216	$22,482,007	$4,572,849	$127,519,071
High Estimate	$118,380,410	$26,491,315	$5,388,344	$150,260,068

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$191,685,905	$33,440,372	$8,588,941	$233,715,217
Median Estimate	$224,713,829	$39,202,225	$10,068,835	$273,984,890
High Estimate	$264,787,965	$46,193,318	$11,864,452	$322,845,734

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	3,367	538	147	4,052
Median Estimate	3,947	631	173	4,750
High Estimate	4,651	743	204	5,597