Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

April 2024 Forecast

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate
 
Date Occupancy Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
May-2024 57.25% 54.98% 59.48%
Jun-2024 78.22% 76.63% 79.73%
Jul-2024 78.25% 76.27% 80.11%
Aug-2024 78.26% 74.48% 81.62%
Sep-2024 75.87% 70.20% 80.76%
Oct-2024 38.70% 35.66% 41.84%

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate
 
Date Average Daily Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
May-2024 $330.56 $316.51 $344.61
Jun-2024 $484.59 $465.24 $503.93
Jul-2024 $541.29 $507.53 $575.04
Aug-2024 $529.10 $504.12 $554.09
Sep-2024 $445.67 $411.13 $480.21
Oct-2024 $325.02 $299.74 $350.30

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR)

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR)

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR
 
Date RevPAR Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
May-2024 $189.24 $174.02 $204.99
Jun-2024 $379.03 $356.50 $401.77
Jul-2024 $423.56 $387.08 $460.68
Aug-2024 $414.07 $375.44 $452.24
Sep-2024 $338.15 $288.61 $387.84
Oct-2024 $125.79 $106.89 $146.55

Tax Revenues

Tax Revenues

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
May-2024 $1,002,704 $918,103 $1,095,102
Jun-2024 $282,903 $252,130 $317,431
Jul-2024 $761,568 $661,838 $876,852
Aug-2024 $1,469,191 $1,273,074 $1,702,722
Sep-2024 $1,599,373 $1,364,052 $1,886,330
Oct-2024 $1,659,865 $1,397,390 $1,986,130
Nov-2024 $1,469,811 $1,193,977 $1,829,511
Dec-2024 $611,503 $514,257 $725,402

Tax Revenues - chart 2

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
May-2024 $1,671,174 $1,530,171 $1,825,170
Jun-2024 $471,505 $420,217 $529,052
Jul-2024 $1,269,280 $1,103,063 $1,461,420
Aug-2024 $2,448,652 $2,121,790 $2,837,870
Sep-2024 $2,665,622 $2,273,419 $3,143,883
Oct-2024 $2,766,442 $2,328,983 $3,310,217
Nov-2024 $2,449,685 $1,989,962 $3,049,185
Dec-2024 $1,019,171 $857,095 $1,209,003

Tax Revenues - chart 3

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
May-2024 $2,673,878 $2,448,273 $2,920,272
Jun-2024 $754,408 $672,347 $846,484
Jul-2024 $2,030,847 $1,764,900 $2,338,272
Aug-2024 $3,917,843 $3,394,864 $4,540,592
Sep-2024 $4,264,995 $3,637,471 $5,030,212
Oct-2024 $4,426,307 $3,726,373 $5,296,347
Nov-2024 $3,919,495 $3,183,939 $4,878,696
Dec-2024 $1,630,674 $1,371,353 $1,934,405

Lodging Sector Sales

Lodging Sector Sales

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales
 
Date Lodging Sales Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
May-2024 $38,078,385 $33,091,879 $43,842,604
Jun-2024 $73,459,551 $63,653,695 $85,136,106
Jul-2024 $79,968,650 $68,202,582 $94,316,482
Aug-2024 $82,993,252 $69,869,493 $99,306,498
Sep-2024 $73,490,538 $59,698,859 $91,475,550
Oct-2024 $30,575,143 $25,712,864 $36,270,087

Economic Indicators

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $315,293,367 $67,637,491 $16,953,096 $399,883,953
Median Estimate $370,928,581 $79,572,493 $19,944,569 $470,445,643
High Estimate $439,560,238 $94,295,535 $23,634,858 $557,490,631
Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $101,976,991 $22,820,537 $4,641,706 $129,439,234
Median Estimate $119,971,380 $26,847,345 $5,460,762 $152,279,488
High Estimate $142,169,278 $31,814,822 $6,471,152 $180,455,253
Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $228,097,536 $39,792,526 $10,220,450 $278,110,513
Median Estimate $268,346,576 $46,814,133 $12,023,909 $327,184,618
High Estimate $317,997,833 $55,476,002 $14,248,659 $387,722,494
Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate 4,006 640 175 4,822
Median Estimate 4,713 753 206 5,673
High Estimate 5,585 893 245 6,722