Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

April 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2024	57.25%	54.98%	59.48%
Jun-2024	78.22%	76.63%	79.73%
Jul-2024	78.25%	76.27%	80.11%
Aug-2024	78.26%	74.48%	81.62%
Sep-2024	75.87%	70.20%	80.76%
Oct-2024	38.70%	35.66%	41.84%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2024	$330.56	$316.51	$344.61
Jun-2024	$484.59	$465.24	$503.93
Jul-2024	$541.29	$507.53	$575.04
Aug-2024	$529.10	$504.12	$554.09
Sep-2024	$445.67	$411.13	$480.21
Oct-2024	$325.02	$299.74	$350.30

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2024	$189.24	$174.02	$204.99
Jun-2024	$379.03	$356.50	$401.77
Jul-2024	$423.56	$387.08	$460.68
Aug-2024	$414.07	$375.44	$452.24
Sep-2024	$338.15	$288.61	$387.84
Oct-2024	$125.79	$106.89	$146.55

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2024	$1,002,704	$918,103	$1,095,102
Jun-2024	$282,903	$252,130	$317,431
Jul-2024	$761,568	$661,838	$876,852
Aug-2024	$1,469,191	$1,273,074	$1,702,722
Sep-2024	$1,599,373	$1,364,052	$1,886,330
Oct-2024	$1,659,865	$1,397,390	$1,986,130
Nov-2024	$1,469,811	$1,193,977	$1,829,511
Dec-2024	$611,503	$514,257	$725,402

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2024	$1,671,174	$1,530,171	$1,825,170
Jun-2024	$471,505	$420,217	$529,052
Jul-2024	$1,269,280	$1,103,063	$1,461,420
Aug-2024	$2,448,652	$2,121,790	$2,837,870
Sep-2024	$2,665,622	$2,273,419	$3,143,883
Oct-2024	$2,766,442	$2,328,983	$3,310,217
Nov-2024	$2,449,685	$1,989,962	$3,049,185
Dec-2024	$1,019,171	$857,095	$1,209,003

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2024	$2,673,878	$2,448,273	$2,920,272
Jun-2024	$754,408	$672,347	$846,484
Jul-2024	$2,030,847	$1,764,900	$2,338,272
Aug-2024	$3,917,843	$3,394,864	$4,540,592
Sep-2024	$4,264,995	$3,637,471	$5,030,212
Oct-2024	$4,426,307	$3,726,373	$5,296,347
Nov-2024	$3,919,495	$3,183,939	$4,878,696
Dec-2024	$1,630,674	$1,371,353	$1,934,405

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
May-2024	$38,078,385	$33,091,879	$43,842,604
Jun-2024	$73,459,551	$63,653,695	$85,136,106
Jul-2024	$79,968,650	$68,202,582	$94,316,482
Aug-2024	$82,993,252	$69,869,493	$99,306,498
Sep-2024	$73,490,538	$59,698,859	$91,475,550
Oct-2024	$30,575,143	$25,712,864	$36,270,087

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$315,293,367	$67,637,491	$16,953,096	$399,883,953
Median Estimate	$370,928,581	$79,572,493	$19,944,569	$470,445,643
High Estimate	$439,560,238	$94,295,535	$23,634,858	$557,490,631

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$101,976,991	$22,820,537	$4,641,706	$129,439,234
Median Estimate	$119,971,380	$26,847,345	$5,460,762	$152,279,488
High Estimate	$142,169,278	$31,814,822	$6,471,152	$180,455,253

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$228,097,536	$39,792,526	$10,220,450	$278,110,513
Median Estimate	$268,346,576	$46,814,133	$12,023,909	$327,184,618
High Estimate	$317,997,833	$55,476,002	$14,248,659	$387,722,494

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	4,006	640	175	4,822
Median Estimate	4,713	753	206	5,673
High Estimate	5,585	893	245	6,722