Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

November 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Dec-2024	45.91%	44.20%	47.63%
Jan-2025	61.26%	58.80%	63.66%
Feb-2025	69.54%	66.38%	72.52%
Mar-2025	63.25%	58.93%	67.36%
Apr-2025	32.18%	27.91%	36.77%
May-2025	61.60%	55.27%	67.57%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Dec-2024	$555.88	$536.31	$575.44
Jan-2025	$529.23	$508.11	$550.35
Feb-2025	$575.01	$539.25	$610.78
Mar-2025	$493.85	$465.47	$522.23
Apr-2025	$310.10	$279.83	$340.37
May-2025	$308.52	$292.00	$325.03

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Dec-2024	$255.22	$237.06	$274.10
Jan-2025	$324.20	$298.78	$350.35
Feb-2025	$399.85	$357.96	$442.94
Mar-2025	$312.35	$274.30	$351.79
Apr-2025	$99.78	$78.09	$125.15
May-2025	$190.06	$161.39	$219.62

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Dec-2024	$634,540	$574,574	$700,765
Jan-2025	$246,100	$211,394	$286,504
Feb-2025	$851,758	$734,539	$990,211
Mar-2025	$973,654	$849,539	$1,118,807
Apr-2025	$1,110,403	$946,425	$1,309,804
May-2025	$957,834	$800,820	$1,152,613
Jun-2025	$328,008	$253,394	$417,302
Jul-2025	$770,499	$624,806	$953,269

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Dec-2024	$1,057,567	$957,623	$1,167,942
Jan-2025	$410,167	$352,324	$477,506
Feb-2025	$1,419,597	$1,224,232	$1,650,351
Mar-2025	$1,622,756	$1,415,899	$1,864,678
Apr-2025	$1,850,671	$1,577,376	$2,183,007
May-2025	$1,596,389	$1,334,699	$1,921,021
Jun-2025	$546,680	$422,323	$695,504
Jul-2025	$1,284,165	$1,041,343	$1,588,781

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Dec-2024	$1,692,107	$1,532,197	$1,868,707
Jan-2025	$656,267	$563,718	$764,009
Feb-2025	$2,271,356	$1,958,772	$2,640,562
Mar-2025	$2,596,410	$2,265,438	$2,983,484
Apr-2025	$2,961,073	$2,523,801	$3,492,811
May-2025	$2,554,223	$2,135,519	$3,073,634
Jun-2025	$874,688	$675,718	$1,112,806
Jul-2025	$2,054,664	$1,666,148	$2,542,049

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Dec-2024	$42,587,916	$36,726,969	$49,510,540
Jan-2025	$48,682,679	$42,476,960	$55,940,331
Feb-2025	$55,520,127	$47,321,270	$65,490,214
Mar-2025	$47,891,679	$40,040,977	$57,630,638
Apr-2025	$16,400,396	$12,669,705	$20,865,114
May-2025	$38,524,949	$31,240,275	$47,663,426

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$210,476,157	$45,419,762	$11,430,343	$267,326,263
Median Estimate	$249,607,746	$53,864,175	$13,555,465	$317,027,386
High Estimate	$297,100,262	$64,112,840	$16,134,656	$377,347,758

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$68,075,410	$15,303,567	$3,153,180	$86,532,156
Median Estimate	$80,731,945	$18,148,796	$3,739,417	$102,620,158
High Estimate	$96,092,699	$21,601,943	$4,450,913	$122,145,556

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$152,268,008	$26,693,531	$6,895,554	$185,857,093
Median Estimate	$180,577,576	$31,656,374	$8,177,571	$220,411,521
High Estimate	$214,935,818	$37,679,590	$9,733,513	$262,348,922