Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

May 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024	81.72%	80.44%	82.93%
Oct-2024	51.20%	48.57%	53.83%
Nov-2024	26.15%	23.09%	29.47%
Dec-2024	46.38%	43.33%	49.46%
Jan-2025	66.23%	62.66%	69.63%
Feb-2025	71.00%	65.61%	75.86%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024	$437.16	$415.92	$458.40
Oct-2024	$290.83	$267.94	$313.71
Nov-2024	$233.39	$206.76	$260.02
Dec-2024	$546.39	$517.86	$574.91
Jan-2025	$547.95	$511.90	$584.01
Feb-2025	$529.19	$489.46	$568.91

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024	$357.23	$334.55	$380.14
Oct-2024	$148.90	$130.13	$168.86
Nov-2024	$61.04	$47.73	$76.64
Dec-2024	$253.42	$224.38	$284.37
Jan-2025	$362.93	$320.75	$406.65
Feb-2025	$375.74	$321.16	$431.57

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024	$1,554,629	$1,554,629	$1,554,629
Oct-2024	$1,572,679	$1,399,065	$1,767,837
Nov-2024	$1,410,189	$1,233,900	$1,616,306
Dec-2024	$611,740	$528,131	$707,831
Jan-2025	$254,847	$212,990	$302,818
Feb-2025	$698,569	$603,617	$808,885
Mar-2025	$995,844	$846,647	$1,177,478
Apr-2025	$1,061,729	$886,704	$1,280,563

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024	$2,591,048	$2,591,048	$2,591,048
Oct-2024	$2,621,132	$2,331,775	$2,946,395
Nov-2024	$2,350,316	$2,056,500	$2,693,843
Dec-2024	$1,019,567	$880,218	$1,179,719
Jan-2025	$424,745	$354,983	$504,696
Feb-2025	$1,164,281	$1,006,028	$1,348,141
Mar-2025	$1,659,741	$1,411,078	$1,962,463
Apr-2025	$1,769,549	$1,477,839	$2,134,272

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024	$4,145,676	$4,145,676	$4,145,676
Oct-2024	$4,193,811	$3,730,840	$4,714,233
Nov-2024	$3,760,505	$3,290,400	$4,310,148
Dec-2024	$1,631,307	$1,408,349	$1,887,550
Jan-2025	$679,592	$567,973	$807,514
Feb-2025	$1,862,850	$1,609,645	$2,157,026
Mar-2025	$2,655,585	$2,257,725	$3,139,941
Apr-2025	$2,831,278	$2,364,543	$3,414,836

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024	$70,509,468	$61,695,000	$80,815,277
Oct-2024	$30,587,013	$26,406,543	$35,391,560
Nov-2024	$12,742,342	$10,649,501	$15,140,879
Dec-2024	$34,928,432	$30,180,853	$40,444,239
Jan-2025	$49,792,219	$42,332,337	$58,873,896
Feb-2025	$53,086,456	$44,335,180	$64,028,168

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$215,599,413	$46,525,337	$11,708,572	$273,833,322
Median Estimate	$251,645,932	$54,304,006	$13,666,153	$319,616,091
High Estimate	$294,694,019	$63,593,584	$16,003,980	$374,291,582

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$69,732,451	$15,676,075	$3,229,932	$88,638,459
Median Estimate	$81,391,166	$18,296,991	$3,769,951	$103,458,109
High Estimate	$95,314,435	$21,426,987	$4,414,865	$121,156,288

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$155,974,404	$27,343,285	$7,063,401	$190,381,089
Median Estimate	$182,052,092	$31,914,866	$8,244,346	$222,211,304
High Estimate	$213,195,033	$37,374,420	$9,654,680	$260,224,133

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	2,739	440	122	3,301
Median Estimate	3,197	513	142	3,853
High Estimate	3,744	601	167	4,512