Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

May 2024 Forecast

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Occupancy rate chart

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate
 
Date Occupancy Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024 81.72% 80.44% 82.93%
Oct-2024 51.20% 48.57% 53.83%
Nov-2024 26.15% 23.09% 29.47%
Dec-2024 46.38% 43.33% 49.46%
Jan-2025 66.23% 62.66% 69.63%
Feb-2025 71.00% 65.61% 75.86%

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate
 
Date Average Daily Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024 $437.16 $415.92 $458.40
Oct-2024 $290.83 $267.94 $313.71
Nov-2024 $233.39 $206.76 $260.02
Dec-2024 $546.39 $517.86 $574.91
Jan-2025 $547.95 $511.90 $584.01
Feb-2025 $529.19 $489.46 $568.91

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR)

Forecast of RevPAR

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR
 
Date RevPAR Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024 $357.23 $334.55 $380.14
Oct-2024 $148.90 $130.13 $168.86
Nov-2024 $61.04 $47.73 $76.64
Dec-2024 $253.42 $224.38 $284.37
Jan-2025 $362.93 $320.75 $406.65
Feb-2025 $375.74 $321.16 $431.57

Tax Revenues

Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024 $1,554,629 $1,554,629 $1,554,629
Oct-2024 $1,572,679 $1,399,065 $1,767,837
Nov-2024 $1,410,189 $1,233,900 $1,616,306
Dec-2024 $611,740 $528,131 $707,831
Jan-2025 $254,847 $212,990 $302,818
Feb-2025 $698,569 $603,617 $808,885
Mar-2025 $995,844 $846,647 $1,177,478
Apr-2025 $1,061,729 $886,704 $1,280,563

orecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024 $2,591,048 $2,591,048 $2,591,048
Oct-2024 $2,621,132 $2,331,775 $2,946,395
Nov-2024 $2,350,316 $2,056,500 $2,693,843
Dec-2024 $1,019,567 $880,218 $1,179,719
Jan-2025 $424,745 $354,983 $504,696
Feb-2025 $1,164,281 $1,006,028 $1,348,141
Mar-2025 $1,659,741 $1,411,078 $1,962,463
Apr-2025 $1,769,549 $1,477,839 $2,134,272

Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024 $4,145,676 $4,145,676 $4,145,676
Oct-2024 $4,193,811 $3,730,840 $4,714,233
Nov-2024 $3,760,505 $3,290,400 $4,310,148
Dec-2024 $1,631,307 $1,408,349 $1,887,550
Jan-2025 $679,592 $567,973 $807,514
Feb-2025 $1,862,850 $1,609,645 $2,157,026
Mar-2025 $2,655,585 $2,257,725 $3,139,941
Apr-2025 $2,831,278 $2,364,543 $3,414,836

Lodging Sector Sales

Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales
 
Date Lodging Sales Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Sep-2024 $70,509,468 $61,695,000 $80,815,277
Oct-2024 $30,587,013 $26,406,543 $35,391,560
Nov-2024 $12,742,342 $10,649,501 $15,140,879
Dec-2024 $34,928,432 $30,180,853 $40,444,239
Jan-2025 $49,792,219 $42,332,337 $58,873,896
Feb-2025 $53,086,456 $44,335,180 $64,028,168

Economic Indicators

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $215,599,413 $46,525,337 $11,708,572 $273,833,322
Median Estimate $251,645,932 $54,304,006 $13,666,153 $319,616,091
High Estimate $294,694,019 $63,593,584 $16,003,980 $374,291,582
Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $69,732,451 $15,676,075 $3,229,932 $88,638,459
Median Estimate $81,391,166 $18,296,991 $3,769,951 $103,458,109
High Estimate $95,314,435 $21,426,987 $4,414,865 $121,156,288
Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $155,974,404 $27,343,285 $7,063,401 $190,381,089
Median Estimate $182,052,092 $31,914,866 $8,244,346 $222,211,304
High Estimate $213,195,033 $37,374,420 $9,654,680 $260,224,133
Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate 2,739 440 122 3,301
Median Estimate 3,197 513 142 3,853
High Estimate 3,744 601 167 4,512