Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

July 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Aug-2024	82.39%	81.48%	83.27%
Sep-2024	81.44%	77.82%	84.58%
Oct-2024	47.39%	44.26%	50.55%
Nov-2024	22.92%	19.44%	26.80%
Dec-2024	43.19%	38.05%	48.47%
Jan-2025	58.41%	53.06%	63.57%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Aug-2024	$508.59	$486.82	$530.36
Sep-2024	$399.83	$377.27	$422.39
Oct-2024	$303.76	$280.75	$326.77
Nov-2024	$256.08	$227.60	$284.56
Dec-2024	$562.70	$527.14	$598.26
Jan-2025	$592.88	$554.78	$630.98

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Aug-2024	$419.04	$396.65	$441.64
Sep-2024	$325.61	$293.57	$357.27
Oct-2024	$143.97	$124.26	$165.18
Nov-2024	$58.68	$44.25	$76.26
Dec-2024	$243.01	$200.58	$290.01
Jan-2025	$346.30	$294.37	$401.10

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Aug-2024	$1,369,829	$1,183,085	$1,586,049
Sep-2024	$1,545,572	$1,320,444	$1,809,083
Oct-2024	$1,536,634	$1,277,084	$1,859,455
Nov-2024	$1,326,529	$1,091,690	$1,627,603
Dec-2024	$586,488	$515,061	$668,813
Jan-2025	$242,904	$191,797	$302,846
Feb-2025	$673,647	$564,379	$809,017
Mar-2025	$943,429	$778,910	$1,155,397

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Aug-2024	$2,283,048	$1,971,808	$2,643,415
Sep-2024	$2,575,953	$2,200,740	$3,015,138
Oct-2024	$2,561,056	$2,128,474	$3,099,091
Nov-2024	$2,210,882	$1,819,484	$2,712,672
Dec-2024	$977,479	$858,435	$1,114,688
Jan-2025	$404,840	$319,661	$504,743
Feb-2025	$1,122,745	$940,632	$1,348,362
Mar-2025	$1,572,381	$1,298,183	$1,925,662

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Aug-2024	$3,652,876	$3,154,892	$4,229,464
Sep-2024	$4,121,525	$3,521,184	$4,824,221
Oct-2024	$4,097,690	$3,405,558	$4,958,546
Nov-2024	$3,537,412	$2,911,174	$4,340,275
Dec-2024	$1,563,967	$1,373,495	$1,783,501
Jan-2025	$647,744	$511,458	$807,589
Feb-2025	$1,796,391	$1,505,011	$2,157,379
Mar-2025	$2,515,810	$2,077,093	$3,081,059

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Aug-2024	$76,831,683	$63,854,208	$92,972,730
Sep-2024	$66,326,471	$54,584,516	$81,380,149
Oct-2024	$29,324,385	$25,753,037	$33,440,641
Nov-2024	$12,145,202	$9,589,834	$15,142,293
Dec-2024	$33,682,338	$28,218,961	$40,450,861
Jan-2025	$47,171,437	$38,945,500	$57,769,856

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$251,697,707	$54,315,179	$13,668,965	$319,681,850
Median Estimate	$301,547,334	$65,072,497	$16,376,163	$382,995,994
High Estimate	$363,401,449	$78,420,336	$19,735,293	$461,557,079

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$81,407,912	$18,300,756	$3,770,727	$103,479,395
Median Estimate	$97,531,039	$21,925,287	$4,517,536	$123,973,862
High Estimate	$117,536,841	$26,422,658	$5,444,187	$149,403,686

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$182,089,548	$31,921,433	$8,246,042	$222,257,023
Median Estimate	$218,153,032	$38,243,588	$9,879,207	$266,275,827
High Estimate	$262,901,107	$46,088,212	$11,905,660	$320,894,980