Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

May 2024 Forecast

Occupancy Rate (OR)

Occupancy Rate (OR) chart

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate
 
Date Occupancy Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024 81.90% 80.72% 83.03%
Jul-2024 82.39% 80.38% 84.23%
Aug-2024 80.71% 78.03% 83.14%
Sep-2024 78.18% 74.17% 81.73%
Oct-2024 52.67% 48.81% 56.51%
Nov-2024 29.03% 22.92% 36.02%

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Average Daily Rate (ADR) chart

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate
 
Date Average Daily Rate Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024 $490.42 $470.48 $510.35
Jul-2024 $537.60 $512.49 $562.71
Aug-2024 $522.05 $498.36 $545.74
Sep-2024 $439.16 $414.90 $463.42
Oct-2024 $299.31 $276.46 $322.15
Nov-2024 $223.84 $190.77 $256.90

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR)

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) chart

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR
 
Date RevPAR Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024 $401.66 $379.77 $423.74
Jul-2024 $442.92 $411.93 $473.99
Aug-2024 $421.36 $388.88 $453.71
Sep-2024 $343.36 $307.74 $378.74
Oct-2024 $157.66 $134.93 $182.04
Nov-2024 $64.98 $43.72 $92.53

Tax Revenues

Tax Revenues chart

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024 $284,217 $253,588 $318,546
Jul-2024 $736,193 $676,489 $801,166
Aug-2024 $1,510,976 $1,298,777 $1,766,535
Sep-2024 $1,693,055 $1,438,292 $2,004,969
Oct-2024 $1,656,892 $1,398,688 $1,976,277
Nov-2024 $1,420,030 $1,172,604 $1,735,858
Dec-2024 $683,528 $574,093 $813,728
Jan-2025 $250,972 $191,333 $323,487

Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024 $473,695 $422,647 $530,909
Jul-2024 $1,226,988 $1,127,481 $1,335,276
Aug-2024 $2,518,293 $2,164,628 $2,944,225
Sep-2024 $2,821,758 $2,397,153 $3,341,614
Oct-2024 $2,761,486 $2,331,147 $3,293,795
Nov-2024 $2,366,717 $1,954,340 $2,893,096
Dec-2024 $1,139,214 $956,821 $1,356,213
Jan-2025 $418,287 $318,888 $539,145

Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue
 
Date Tax Revenue Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024 $757,913 $676,235 $849,455
Jul-2024 $1,963,181 $1,803,970 $2,136,442
Aug-2024 $4,029,268 $3,463,405 $4,710,759
Sep-2024 $4,514,813 $3,835,444 $5,346,583
Oct-2024 $4,418,378 $3,729,835 $5,270,072
Nov-2024 $3,786,747 $3,126,944 $4,628,954
Dec-2024 $1,822,742 $1,530,913 $2,169,941
Jan-2025 $669,260 $510,220 $862,632

Lodging Sector Sales

Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales
 
Date Lodging Sales Forecast Lower CI Bound Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024 $75,548,776 $64,938,848 $88,326,739
Jul-2024 $84,652,747 $71,914,577 $100,248,425
Aug-2024 $82,844,580 $69,934,398 $98,813,851
Sep-2024 $71,001,503 $58,630,193 $86,792,882
Oct-2024 $34,176,412 $28,704,625 $40,686,394
Nov-2024 $12,548,620 $9,566,627 $16,174,358

Economic Indicators

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $303,689,269 $65,148,152 $16,329,152 $385,166,572
Median Estimate $360,772,638 $77,393,813 $19,398,483 $457,564,935
High Estimate $431,042,650 $92,468,321 $23,176,873 $546,687,844
Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $98,223,816 $21,980,647 $4,470,872 $124,675,336
Median Estimate $116,686,591 $26,112,270 $5,311,246 $148,110,106
High Estimate $139,414,390 $31,198,330 $6,345,757 $176,958,477
Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate $219,702,605 $38,327,997 $9,844,295 $267,874,897
Median Estimate $260,999,306 $45,532,372 $11,694,692 $318,226,369
High Estimate $311,835,823 $54,401,014 $13,972,556 $380,209,392
Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales
 
Estimate Direct Indirect Induced Total
Low Estimate 3,859 617 169 4,644
Median Estimate 4,584 733 201 5,517
High Estimate 5,477 875 240 6,592