Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

May 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024	81.90%	80.72%	83.03%
Jul-2024	82.39%	80.38%	84.23%
Aug-2024	80.71%	78.03%	83.14%
Sep-2024	78.18%	74.17%	81.73%
Oct-2024	52.67%	48.81%	56.51%
Nov-2024	29.03%	22.92%	36.02%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024	$490.42	$470.48	$510.35
Jul-2024	$537.60	$512.49	$562.71
Aug-2024	$522.05	$498.36	$545.74
Sep-2024	$439.16	$414.90	$463.42
Oct-2024	$299.31	$276.46	$322.15
Nov-2024	$223.84	$190.77	$256.90

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024	$401.66	$379.77	$423.74
Jul-2024	$442.92	$411.93	$473.99
Aug-2024	$421.36	$388.88	$453.71
Sep-2024	$343.36	$307.74	$378.74
Oct-2024	$157.66	$134.93	$182.04
Nov-2024	$64.98	$43.72	$92.53

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024	$284,217	$253,588	$318,546
Jul-2024	$736,193	$676,489	$801,166
Aug-2024	$1,510,976	$1,298,777	$1,766,535
Sep-2024	$1,693,055	$1,438,292	$2,004,969
Oct-2024	$1,656,892	$1,398,688	$1,976,277
Nov-2024	$1,420,030	$1,172,604	$1,735,858
Dec-2024	$683,528	$574,093	$813,728
Jan-2025	$250,972	$191,333	$323,487

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024	$473,695	$422,647	$530,909
Jul-2024	$1,226,988	$1,127,481	$1,335,276
Aug-2024	$2,518,293	$2,164,628	$2,944,225
Sep-2024	$2,821,758	$2,397,153	$3,341,614
Oct-2024	$2,761,486	$2,331,147	$3,293,795
Nov-2024	$2,366,717	$1,954,340	$2,893,096
Dec-2024	$1,139,214	$956,821	$1,356,213
Jan-2025	$418,287	$318,888	$539,145

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024	$757,913	$676,235	$849,455
Jul-2024	$1,963,181	$1,803,970	$2,136,442
Aug-2024	$4,029,268	$3,463,405	$4,710,759
Sep-2024	$4,514,813	$3,835,444	$5,346,583
Oct-2024	$4,418,378	$3,729,835	$5,270,072
Nov-2024	$3,786,747	$3,126,944	$4,628,954
Dec-2024	$1,822,742	$1,530,913	$2,169,941
Jan-2025	$669,260	$510,220	$862,632

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Jun-2024	$75,548,776	$64,938,848	$88,326,739
Jul-2024	$84,652,747	$71,914,577	$100,248,425
Aug-2024	$82,844,580	$69,934,398	$98,813,851
Sep-2024	$71,001,503	$58,630,193	$86,792,882
Oct-2024	$34,176,412	$28,704,625	$40,686,394
Nov-2024	$12,548,620	$9,566,627	$16,174,358

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$303,689,269	$65,148,152	$16,329,152	$385,166,572
Median Estimate	$360,772,638	$77,393,813	$19,398,483	$457,564,935
High Estimate	$431,042,650	$92,468,321	$23,176,873	$546,687,844

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$98,223,816	$21,980,647	$4,470,872	$124,675,336
Median Estimate	$116,686,591	$26,112,270	$5,311,246	$148,110,106
High Estimate	$139,414,390	$31,198,330	$6,345,757	$176,958,477

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$219,702,605	$38,327,997	$9,844,295	$267,874,897
Median Estimate	$260,999,306	$45,532,372	$11,694,692	$318,226,369
High Estimate	$311,835,823	$54,401,014	$13,972,556	$380,209,392

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	3,859	617	169	4,644
Median Estimate	4,584	733	201	5,517
High Estimate	5,477	875	240	6,592