Jackson Hole Economic Forecasting

March 2024 Forecast

Table 1: Forecast of Monthly Occupancy Rate

Date	Occupancy Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2024	64.81%	63.80%	65.82%
Apr-2024	33.50%	31.31%	35.76%
May-2024	57.30%	54.38%	60.17%
Jun-2024	75.92%	72.88%	78.71%
Jul-2024	75.11%	71.50%	78.40%
Aug-2024	74.61%	70.75%	78.12%

Table 2: Forecast of Monthly Average Daily Rate

Date	Average Daily Rate Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2024	$484.03	$468.00	$500.06
Apr-2024	$199.15	$174.46	$223.85
May-2024	$332.82	$316.18	$349.47
Jun-2024	$482.33	$458.13	$506.54
Jul-2024	$522.35	$490.05	$554.65
Aug-2024	$482.04	$434.80	$529.28

Table 3: Forecast of Monthly RevPAR

Date	RevPAR Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2024	$313.72	$298.58	$329.12
Apr-2024	$66.71	$54.63	$80.04
May-2024	$190.72	$171.95	$210.29
Jun-2024	$366.17	$333.88	$398.71
Jul-2024	$392.32	$350.38	$434.82
Aug-2024	$359.65	$307.62	$413.47

Table 4: Forecast County (2%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2024	$946,096	$867,560	$1,031,742
Apr-2024	$1,075,058	$982,275	$1,176,604
May-2024	$1,058,839	$955,422	$1,174,449
Jun-2024	$303,212	$265,032	$346,023
Jul-2024	$765,592	$685,030	$855,902
Aug-2024	$1,454,732	$1,250,363	$1,701,166
Sep-2024	$1,652,051	$1,402,399	$1,958,552
Oct-2024	$1,683,696	$1,371,263	$2,090,651

Table 5: Forecast State (3%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2024	$1,576,827	$1,445,933	$1,719,571
Apr-2024	$1,791,763	$1,637,125	$1,961,007
May-2024	$1,764,731	$1,592,370	$1,957,415
Jun-2024	$505,353	$441,720	$576,705
Jul-2024	$1,275,987	$1,141,717	$1,426,503
Aug-2024	$2,424,553	$2,083,938	$2,835,276
Sep-2024	$2,753,418	$2,337,332	$3,264,254
Oct-2024	$2,806,160	$2,285,438	$3,484,418

Table 6: Forecast of Monthly Total (5%) Lodging Tax Revenue

Date	Tax Revenue Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2024	$2,522,923	$2,313,493	$2,751,313
Apr-2024	$2,866,820	$2,619,400	$3,137,611
May-2024	$2,823,570	$2,547,792	$3,131,864
Jun-2024	$808,564	$706,753	$922,728
Jul-2024	$2,041,580	$1,826,747	$2,282,404
Aug-2024	$3,879,285	$3,334,301	$4,536,442
Sep-2024	$4,405,468	$3,739,732	$5,222,806
Oct-2024	$4,489,856	$3,656,701	$5,575,069

Table 7: Forecast of Monthly Lodging Sales

Date	Lodging Sales Forecast	Lower CI Bound	Upper CI Bound
Mar-2024	$52,941,943	$47,771,107	$58,722,452
Apr-2024	$15,160,583	$13,251,613	$17,301,153
May-2024	$38,279,619	$34,251,501	$42,795,080
Jun-2024	$72,736,593	$62,518,140	$85,058,279
Jul-2024	$82,602,528	$70,119,966	$97,927,607
Aug-2024	$84,184,798	$68,563,147	$104,532,540

Table 8: Six-Month Forecast of Economic Output from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$296,475,474	$63,600,631	$15,941,271	$376,017,376
Median Estimate	$345,906,064	$74,204,600	$18,599,118	$438,709,783
High Estimate	$406,337,112	$87,168,429	$21,848,473	$515,354,014

Table 9: Six-Month Forecast of Employee Compensation from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$95,890,621	$21,458,522	$4,364,672	$121,713,814
Median Estimate	$111,878,216	$25,036,246	$5,092,382	$142,006,844
High Estimate	$131,423,748	$29,410,174	$5,982,046	$166,815,967

Table 10: Six-Month Forecast of Contribution to Gross County Product from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	$214,483,818	$37,417,559	$9,610,455	$261,511,832
Median Estimate	$250,244,151	$43,656,092	$11,212,782	$305,113,025
High Estimate	$293,962,715	$51,282,979	$13,171,708	$358,417,402

Table 11: Six-Month Forecast of Employment from Lodging Sales

Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Induced	Total
Low Estimate	3,767	602	165	4,534
Median Estimate	4,395	702	193	5,290
High Estimate	5,163	825	226	6,214